Step down off the ledge

After an excellent offseason and a superb preseason, many expected the Vancouver Canucks to get off to a flying start when the regular-season campaign began Thursday. Their opening night clash on the road against a good Calgary Flames team was always going to be difficult, but the Canucks came out incredibly flat. There were moments of optimism, as they bounced back in the third period and almost pulled off a victory, but in the end, it was a rather disappointing start to the campaign.

Still, few deserted the bandwagon after Thursday’s loss. Most of the preseason puck prognosticators had pegged the Flames to duke it out against the Canucks all season long for the Northwest Division title, so a close loss to them on the road was hardly the stuff of nightmares. The late almost-comeback inspired yet more hope, as did their next matchup against the Colorado Avalanche, projected by all and sundry to finish in the Western Conference basement and there was a feeling that it might be best to look on the bright side of life.

Much like Brian’s hopes of rescue in the above Monty Python flick, those optimistic feelings soon shattered on the harsh floor of reality. The Canucks promptly went out and lost 3-0 to the Avalanche Saturday. Roberto Luongo played decently, but was outdueled by no-name star Craig Anderson. The Sedins and Alex Burrows had a solid game, but the special teams struggled and the rest of the forwards produced very little.

However, it isn’t crisis time yet. Those who seek to draw broad conclusions from these matches would do well to heed the sabermetrician’s warning, “Beware the small sample size!” These are still only two games on an 82-game schedule. The Canucks, as assembled on paper, are a very good team, one many figured would take the Northwest Division, win a couple of playoff rounds and perhaps even advance to or win the Stanley Cup, as Greg Wyshynski boldly predicted. That team hasn’t magically disappeared. There haven’t been any major injuries or trades, and this team is still just as talented as it was on opening night. Statistics would suggest that the impact of a few early results would diminish over time, and this team would be likely to still do well. If they’d won the first two games, no one would suggest that they’d finish the season 82-0; good and bad results happen throughout the year. High expectations may make these losses seem worse than they are, and they may have played a role in the losses, but it’s still just two games. There’s no reason to worry about a Puck Daddy curse, start demanding line changes or even begin calling for trades: a couple of early losses aren’t exactly a reason to panic.

That doesn’t mean they’re unimportant; playoff and division races often come down to less than four points, and those points mean the exact same amount in the standings whether they’re obtained in October or March. These losses could hurt the Canucks down the road still, and they could perhaps be indicative of deeper problems.

However, I don’t think they are. True, these weren’t impressive games, but there were decent signs in both of them. The top line has played well to date. Burrows missed some good opportunities against Colorado, but he got a crucial goal against Calgary and he’s been in all the right places. Observers of the Canucks last season know he can finish; it’s just going to take him a little while to get going. New addition Mikael Samuelsson didn’t have a great game against the Avalanche, but he played well against the Flames and notched a goal. The defence has struggled at times, and the lower lines haven’t generated much, but the Canucks have managed 77 shots through two games and run into two hot goalies. Moreover, their lines are still looking to find some chemistry thanks to the long preseason and the decision to extend preseason battles for roster spots. There’s plenty to build on here. That’s why I’m glad it doesn’t look like head coach Alain Vigneault will make any radical changes for the time being. Let’s give this team, this lineup and these lines a chance to straighten it out on their own before going into crisis mode.

The next challenge for the Canucks comes Monday night against Columbus. The Blue Jackets have long been a league doormat, but they’ve become quite respectable recently; they made the playoffs last year, finishing seventh in the Western Conference, and they’ll likely contend for a similar position this year. However, the Canucks still have more talent than them on paper, and probabilities would suggest that they would win this one. I don’t think it’s necessarily a “must-win”, but it does have more significance than it would if the first games had gone better for the Canucks.

Even if they lose Monday night, though, it’s still not time to bail on this team. They’re a very talented, deep squad and they’ll get their wins. I think they’ll probably finish second or third in the West this year with somewhere around 106 points. In the playoffs, I think they’ll win the first round, they’ll likely win the second round, and they have a decent shot at even winning the Western Conference championship and heading off to the Stanley Cup Finals. If they can’t pull it off against Columbus, it will be disappointing, but there’s still plenty of good reasons to remain on the bandwagon. It’s not yet time to take Van Halen’s advice.

Tags: Alex Burrows, Colorado Avalanche, Craig Anderson, Daniel Sedin, defence, forwards, Greg Wyshynski, Henrik Sedin, Mikael Samuelsson, Roberto Luongo